The Big Question After the India–U.S. Trade Deal: Russian Oil

The United States and India have agreed to a significant trade deal, marking a turning point in economic relations between the two countries, after a phone call on Monday between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Under the arrangement, the United States has agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian-made products, lowering the reciprocal duty charged on Indian exports from 25 per cent to 18 per cent with immediate effect. The move comes after months of tariff tensions that saw U.S. levies on Indian goods stack as high as 50 per cent when punitive duties related to Russian oil imports were included.

The question of whether India will halt imports of Russian crude oil is one of the most important unresolved issues in the recently announced India-U.S. trade agreement — and the answer is not a simple “yes.”

What President Trump Claimed

U.S. President Donald Trump said that India agreed to “stop buying Russian oil” as part of the trade understanding. He suggested that India would instead increase purchases of U.S. oil and potentially Venezuelan crude, framing this as part of the broader deal to reduce tariffs and deepen trade ties.

India Has Not Officially Confirmed a Full Halt

However, India has not publicly confirmed that it will stop buying Russian crude. New Delhi has yet to issue any formal directive to oil refiners to immediately halt purchases, and many contracts already in place would take weeks or months to unwind.

The Times of India notes that Indian refiners have not received any government order to cease Russian crude imports, and they would need time to adjust operations and consider alternative sources.

What Analysts Say About Near-Term Reality

Experts and analysts point out that a complete stop in Russian oil buying is unlikely in the short term for several reasons:

Long-term contracts and deliveries: Many crude shipments were already booked before the deal was announced, and these cannot be canceled overnight.

Operational and refining challenges: Indian refineries have historically relied on heavy Russian crude that some facilities are optimized for, making a rapid shift to lighter Middle Eastern or U.S. grades technically and commercially difficult.

Economic considerations: Moscow’s oil has been sold at steep discounts, and a sudden cessation could raise India’s import bill and affect domestic fuel prices.

Because of these factors, industry sources and analysts say India is unlikely to sharply cut or end Russian crude imports immediately — and any reduction would likely be gradual and market-driven, rather than abrupt.