Bihar Elections 2025: High Turnout, Big Projections, and the Wait for Reality

As the dust settles on polling in the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections and exit-poll numbers pour in, one message appears to dominate the discourse: the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state looks set to win big. But beyond the projections, the mood, the players, and the stakes suggest a complex democratic moment, one that demands more than a quick headline.

Record Turnout, Rising Expectations

For the 243-seat state assembly, where 122 seats form the simple majority line, voter enthusiasm reached historic levels. The overall turnout for the 2025 election stood at approximately 66.91 percent, with the final phase drawing in 68.67 percent of eligible voters.

Female voters again outpaced male participation, about 71.6 percent of women cast their ballots, compared to 62.8 percent of men.

The high turnout has set the tone. For the governing BJP-JDU alliance, it has become a sign of popular affirmation. For the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) of the RJD, Congress and Left, it is a symbol of potential change riding in on wave of voters’ restiveness.

What the Exit Polls Are Saying

Multiple independent survey agencies, having polled voters as they exited polling stations, have issued projections that show the NDA commanding a clear lead seat ranges span roughly 130 to 209 seats under different models.

By contrast, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to trail with figures ranging between about 70 to 102 seats.

One more outlier poll, by the CVC Youth Wing, bucked the trend and gave the Grand Alliance a slight edge (124-130 seats) while putting the NDA at 105-111 seats.

It is worth emphasising that exit-polls are just that, projections. As veteran observers note, in previous Bihar elections, exit-polls have sometimes failed to capture the actual result. In 2020, for instance, many predicted a Mahagathbandhan win only for the NDA to come back to power.

Political Maneuvering and Pre-Result Positioning

The reactions to the projections have been swift and sharp.

The NDA has taken them as proof of validation for its long-standing governance narrative in Bihar especially the stewardship of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the broader national leadership of Narendra Modi. One BJP leader described the trend as a “pro-incumbency wave” driven by decades of development work.

The Grand Alliance, however, has dismissed the projections with scepticism. Several leaders have accused the exit-poll process of being skewed or premature. RJD leaders pointed to past polling errors and vowed the real verdict will differ.

Ahead of the vote-count on 14 November, tensions are rising. The opposition has flagged possible “manipulation” of voter lists or electronic voting machines, while the incumbent camp has warned of a “clean-up” of the opposition.

What to Watch on Result Day

Seat distribution: With 243 seats at stake, the margin of majority will matter. A narrow win may force power-sharing arrangements; a landslide would allow the NDA to govern with full autonomy.

Regional patterns: Who won in the major districts and blocs? Will the NDA’s traditional strongholds hold? Has the opposition made inroads in new areas?

Caste and gender dynamics: The large female turnout may shift long-standing gender-vote patterns. Meanwhile, whichever alliance manages to reshape caste permutations will gain an edge.

Independent and third-party impact: Although projections suggest little impact from the independent or smaller party front (such as the Jan Suraaj Party), any surprise performance may matter in close seats.

Asserting victory this early may be tempting — after all, most polls point the NDA’s way. But history cautions against complacency. In a state where local dynamics, candidate quality, and micro-regional issues can rapidly change outcomes, the projections are but one, albeit powerful, indicator.

The count on 14 November will provide the definitive verdict. Until then, Bihar stands at a pivotal moment: between high expectations, charged rhetoric, and the quiet hum of democracy in motion.